Researcher educates Ilonggo
voters how to interpret data

A researcher of Eagle Cross Research Company told Ilonggos that when they are told about survey results, they should check the period the research was done.

“These political and social surveys are very volatile. They can change at a certain moment. Isang tulog mo lang, may daku na nga issue nga nagwa, so opinion can change overnight,” Dr. Roger Borro, also a professor of John B. Lacson Maritime University said during Kapihan sa Bali yesterday.

Surveys have a certain level of significance. For social surveys, it’s 90 percent. Borro said this means that 10 percent can still change. 

“So we are only 90 percent sure of whatever the results of the survey that we see,” he explained.

He added that a political survey has a lower level of significance because opinion can change overnight.

He cited the case of the Eagle Cross survey results on Mayor Jed Patrick Mabilog and his challenger, businessman Rommel Ynion, as an example.

INCREASED, DECREASED

“When we first conducted a non-commissioned survey during the first week of September, we saw that Mayor Mabilog was strong at 65.8 percent compared to Rommel Ynion, contender, who got 18 percent and those undecided are 16.2 percent. On another survey during the first half of January 2013, Mayor Mabilog garnered 61.3 percent while Ynion increased to 38.03 percent. So daku ang ginlumpat nya. Ang next namon nga gin-conduct was on the first week of February wherein Mabilog got 59.8 percent while Ynion, 40.17 percent. During the last week of February until March 1, Mayor Mabilog was at 37.1 percent while Ynion is at 40, may ara undecided nga 2.2 percent,” he said.

FACTORS

“Let the numbers speak,” said Borro, adding that this reflects the candidates’ strategy or system.

“Ang survey isa ka pamaagi nga balasehan sang isa ka kandidato. Ang imporante diri, ang decision making nila. At the end of the day, if makita nila nga nagasaka or naganubu, ano ayhan ang mga factors ang naga-lead diri?”

Borro added that the results were also based on the answers of the respondents to social questions that Eagle Cross posted, like what problems they see in their community, what qualities they like about their candidates, and the factors that could make them vote for a certain candidate.

He also noted that some respondents, at a certain time, have become undecided because their views on their candidates have changed.

BASIS FOR DECISION MAKING

Borro said survey results are the candidates’ bases in their decision making.

“Statistical data will show their weak points. Sa age bracket, for example, kon makita mo nga sa amo sini nga edad sang voters mahina ka, you can remedy this or take action in order to capture this age bracket.

ELECTION OUTCOME

Since the results are only applicable within the time the survey was conducted, it does not predict the outcome of the elections this early.

“Kon March 1 period ang election, daug si Mabilog. But the election is on May 13 pa. This is like a race. Daw palumba. Ang importante amo ang last lap kay basi ma overtake mo ang isa ka runner. Sa politika, ma-overtake mo ang isa ka kandidato,” he said.

Earlier, 90.8 percent of Ilonggos surveyed want Ynion to continue his bid for mayor while 9.2 percent want him to quit.

This, amid rumors that he is going to quit the race.

“What does this tell us? Your guess is as good as mine. We will win by landslide in May 2013. Now, that is my fearless forecast," said Ynion.*